LANCET article
JNV Anti-War Briefing 74 (14 Dec. 2004)
OVER 100,000 DEAD?
The Lancet, the world's leading medical journal, has published an estimate
that 98,000 Iraqis have died because of the invasion and occupation
of Iraq.
This estimate (usually approximated to 100,000 deaths) includes Iraqi
civilians and insurgents, and includes all causes of death, both violent
and
nonviolent.
Including this figure would nearly triple the estimate of deaths associated
with the conflict. The survey team comments: 'the uncertainty in this
value
is substantial and implies additional deaths above those measured in
the
rest of the country.'
CONCLUSION
By effectively excluding military deaths, the survey is very likely
to have
produced an under-estimate of the post-invasion death toll in Iraq.
Given the incentive for households to under-report deaths in general, in
order to maximise food rations, and to under-report deaths of insurgents
in
particular, in order to avoid the attention of the authorities, there
is
reason to suspect further under-estimation of the death toll.
While there may have been serious uncertainties associated with the
significance of the Falluja data, the complete exclusion of Falluja,
the
inclusion of only a rare, undamaged part of Sadr City, and the exclusion
of
all other heavily-damaged cities, means that the Lancet survey almost
certainly under-estimated the death toll in Iraq.
Thus the conclusion that 'the death toll associated with the invasion and
occupation of Iraq is probably about 100,000 and may be much higher'.
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